Europe’s ETF Horizon: Our 6 Predictions for 2026: How are our predictions tracking at the mid-year mark?

White-label platform AUM is growing steadily, though currently tracking behind our ambitious full-year forecast, with market volatility and geopolitical uncertainty weighing on asset growth across the industry. However, issuer demand for outsourced ETF infrastructure remains as strong as ever, as managers look for faster, more efficient routes into the European ETF market. With new issuers and product launches expected in the second half, there’s a credible path for white-label platform AUM growth to accelerate.

European ETF inflows have already passed the halfway mark of our full-year prediction, despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, and active ETFs have done the same. The strength of investor demand underlines the growing role of ETFs among individual and institutional investors alike, and it reinforces our conviction that 2026 will be another record-breaking year for European ETF inflows. We expect this prediction to reach or exceed the targets by year-end.

Active ETF launches continue at a strong pace, with nearly half of our full-year prediction achieved at the midway point. Active ETFs remain one of the fastest-growing and most innovative corners of the European market, with sustained investor appetite and an ever-broadening range of strategies adopting the ETF structure. Given this momentum, we expect to see this prediction realised by year-end.

This prediction was always expected to be a second-half story. While there’s been no formal announcement yet, discussions around the EU Savings and Investments Union and the competitiveness of European capital markets continue to support the case for further reform. We anticipate developments later in the year as policymakers weigh measures to encourage long-term investment and improve investor outcomes.

Market developments have reflected our expectations for this prediction. Despite significant industry discussion and regulatory progress in certain markets, there remains limited evidence of widespread issuer uptake of ETF share classes. Operational, tax, regulatory and commercial considerations continue to shape adoption decisions, with issuers preferring established ETF structures and familiar market-entry routes. We expect this trend to hold through the second half of the year, with the prediction remaining firmly on track.