Waystone’s 6 ETF Predictions for 2026

April 1, 2026

Europe’s ETF market is entering a new phase of growth and evolution. With record inflows, accelerating product innovation, and regulatory developments on the horizon, 2026 is shaping up to be a defining year for ETF issuers and investors alike.

Earlier this year, Waystone’s ETF experts set out 6 predictions for how the European ETF landscape will unfold in 2026.

In this video series, our team will explore each of our predictions, assess progress to date and provide insights into what these trends mean for issuers, investors and the wider ETF ecosystem.

You can find more on our 6 for ’26 ETF predictions here

Prediction 1:20+ new issuers to launch UCITS ETFs in Europe

In the first video of our series, Paul Heffernan, CEO – Waystone ETFs, and Henry Glynn, Head of ETF Capital Markets & Distribution – Waystone ETFs, explore Prediction 1: 20+ new issuers to launch UCITS ETFs in Europe in 2026. They discuss why they expect this record wave of new entrants, the forces driving this acceleration, how the market is evolving, and what new issuers should consider as they launch and scale their strategies.

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Prediction 2:UCITS white‑label platform AUM to double in 2026 to $11.2bn.

Henry Glynn, Head of ETF Capital Markets & Distribution – Waystone ETFs, and Paul Heffernan, CEO – Waystone ETFs, discuss the key factors driving this momentum, how asset managers are approaching European ETF market entry, and the strategic considerations in choosing between white‑label and standalone platforms.

Prediction 3:European ETF inflows to hit a record $470bn

TF adoption in Europe continues to accelerate and we expect to see record ETF inflows of $470bn in 2026 (up from $390bn in 2025). This growth reflects the ongoing shift toward ETFs as core investment products in both retail and institutional portfolios and issuers embracing ETFs for distribution and scalability.

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Prediction 4:200+ active UCITS ETFs to launch in Europe

Active ETF innovation is gathering pace, driven by investor appetite for differentiated strategies and transparency. In 2026, we expect over 200 new active UCITS ETFs—a 50% increase from 2025—led by large asset managers seeking to diversify product ranges and capture flows. This trend signals a maturing market where active ETFs become a mainstream choice for European investors alongside passive products.

Prediction 5:Ireland’s ETF investor tax cut to decrease further from 38% → 35%

The Irish Government cut the ETF Investment Undertaking Tax for investors from 41% to 38% effective from 1 January 2026, as part of the EU Savings and Investments Union Initiative to help enhance Ireland’s competitiveness and encourage long-term investing. While this was welcomed, Irish investors do not get full parity with other investment types on capital gains treatment. We predict the Irish Government to continue toward parity and announce a further 3% relief to investors in 2026. This would narrow this gap, making Ireland an even more attractive domicile for UCITS ETFs.

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Prediction 6:ETF share class adoption in Europe to be slower than industry expectations

While there have been promising recent developments, ETF share classes are not a universal solution for market entry in Europe. There are operational, tax, regulatory and commercial hurdles which need to be solved on a case-by-case basis. We expect slower uptake than anticipated for share class adoption in 2026, with issuers instead favouring easier ETF entry routes. This reflects the complexity of aligning regulatory frameworks with investor demand for flexibility.

Waystone’s 6 ETF Predictions for 2026

Prediction 1:20+ new issuers to launch UCITS ETFs in Europe

Prediction 2:UCITS white‑label platform AUM to double in 2026 to $11.2bn.

Prediction 3:European ETF inflows to hit a record $470bn

Prediction 4:200+ active UCITS ETFs to launch in Europe

Prediction 5:Ireland’s ETF investor tax cut to decrease further from 38% → 35%

Prediction 6:ETF share class adoption in Europe to be slower than industry expectations

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Waystone’s 6 ETF Predictions for 2026

Prediction 1:20+ new issuers to launch UCITS ETFs in Europe

Prediction 2:UCITS white‑label platform AUM to double in 2026 to $11.2bn.

Prediction 3:European ETF inflows to hit a record $470bn

Prediction 4:200+ active UCITS ETFs to launch in Europe

Prediction 5:Ireland’s ETF investor tax cut to decrease further from 38% → 35%

Prediction 6:ETF share class adoption in Europe to be slower than industry expectations

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